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Thomas StorringDirector – Economics and Statistics
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January 21, 2025
ANALYSIS OF CONSUMER PRICE INDEX FOR DECEMBER & ANNUAL 2024

Please note that a temporary GST/HST break is in effect from December 14, 2024 to February 15, 2025, which will affect consumer prices reflected in provincial and national statistics. Major CPI components impacted by the tax break are food, recreation, and clothing and footwear, with approximately 10% of the all-item CPI basket affected by the exemption. Provinces with harmonized sales taxes (Ontario, New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island) will be more impacted than other provinces.

Nova Scotia’s all items Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.9% year-over-year in December 2024, down from a pace of 1.7% year-over-year in November. 

Nova Scotia's inflation has been slowing after peaking at 9.3% in June 2022, though there have been periods of rising inflation, particularly due to higher energy prices.  

Nationally, consumer prices increased 1.8% year-over-year in December 2024, down from 1.9% in November. Inflation was highest in British Columbia and slowest in Prince Edward Island.

 

The most significant upward contributors (combining price increase as well as share of the consumption basket) to Nova Scotia's 0.9% year-over-year inflation were: rent, mortgage interest cost, passenger vehicle insurance premiums, electricity and health care services.

These were offset by downward year-over-year contributions from: fuel oil and other fuels, food purchased from restaurants, recreational equipment and services, women's clothing and children's clothing. 

On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's all items CPI was down 1.0% from November to December 2024. National prices were down 0.4% with decreases reported in all provinces. Prince Edward Island reported the fastest percentage decline on a monthly basis, while British Columbia reported the slowest monthly decline.

Nova Scotia's monthly inflation was influenced by upward contributions from: inter-city transportation, fresh fruit, fresh vegetables, passenger vehicle insurance premiums, and homeowners' home and mortgage insurance.

These upward contributors to Nova Scotia's monthly CPI were offset by some notable downward contributors: food purchased from restaurants, furniture, recreational equipment and services, beer purchased from stores, and traveller accommodations. 

Energy prices play a significant role in inflation rates. Nova Scotia's energy prices were down 0.7% from December 2023 to December 2024.  Year-over-year energy prices were up 1.0% nationally with increases in six provinces. Manitoba reported the largest decline while Alberta reported the fastest increase.

On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's energy prices decreased 0.6% from November to December 2024. National energy prices were down 0.3%. Saskatchewan reported the only monthly increase in energy prices while Prince Edward Island recorded the largest decline month-over-month.

Nova Scotia's energy prices (and overall inflation) are more sensitive to fluctuations in the global price of crude oil. In December 2024, gasoline prices were unchanged from a year ago in Nova Scotia. Alberta reported the fastest increase in gasoline prices year-over-year, while Manitoba reported the largest decline. 

Gasoline prices were down 1.3% from November to December in Nova Scotia, more than the 0.6% decline reported nationally. Every province except Manitoba and Saskatchewan reported monthly decreases in gasoline prices, with Saskatchewan reporting a 0.1% increase and Manitoba's prices remaining unchanged month-over-month.

Nova Scotia's year-over-year fuel oil prices were down 12.0%. Nationally, the fuel oil and other fuels index declined 11.5% compared to December 2023. New Brunswick reported the steepest drop in fuel oil prices. There was no data reported for Alberta on fuel oil and other fuels. 

On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's fuel oil prices were up 0.6%. National fuel oil prices were up 0.7% from November to December 2024. Ontario reported the steepest monthly fuel oil price increase, while British Columbia reported the largest decline. 

Food prices declined 1.0% in Nova Scotia (December 2024 vs December 2023), while national food prices increased 0.6%. Food prices were up in 7 provinces year-over-year, with the fastest increase in Saskatchewan and the largest decrease in Prince Edward Island.

On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's food prices declined 2.9% from November to December while national food prices were down 1.8%. All provinces reported lower prices on a monthly basis, with the largest monthly food price decline in Prince Edward Island. The five HST provinces(Newfoundland, Prince Edward Island, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Ontario) saw faster declines in food prices than the other five provinces in the wake of the temporary GST/HST break.

Food and energy prices are heavily influenced by volatile global commodity markets. Nova Scotia's underlying inflation rate excluding food and energy was 1.6% from December 2023 to December 2024. Nationally, inflation excluding food and energy was 2.1% with year-over-year increases in all provinces. British Columbia reported the fastest growth while Newfoundland and Labrador reported the slowest growth in inflation excluding food and energy prices.

On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's prices for all items excluding food and energy were down 0.5% from November to December 2024. Nationally, prices for all items excluding food and energy were down 0.1%, with decreases in all provinces except British Columbia. Prince Edward Island and Manitoba reported the fastest price decline in all items excluding food and energy. 

Year-over-year shelter cost inflation was 2.9% in Nova Scotia in December 2024. National shelter prices were up 4.5% with increases in all provinces. New Brunswick reported the largest year-over-year increase in shelter prices while Prince Edward Island reported the slowest increase.

Monthly shelter costs were up 0.1% in Nova Scotia from November to December 2024. Nationally, shelter costs were up 0.3% with increases in 7 provinces. The fastest monthly increase was in Québec and Prince Edward Island, with Saskatchewan, Manitoba and British Columbia reporting no change.

Among detailed food products with available data, Nova Scotia's year-over-year inflation was fastest for preserved fruit, chicken, fresh and preserved vegetables and eggs. The largest year-over-year price declines were for sugar and confectionary, fresh fruit, and pork.

In detailed shelter cost components, fuel oil and other fuels reported the steepest year-over-year price decline. Prices for most other shelter cost components were up year-over-year, led by water, rent and electricity.  

Household operations/furnishings costs were up 1.2% overall. The largest year-over-year price increases were for internet access, financial services and appliances. Prices fell for telephones, cleaning products, and paper, plastic, aluminum products.

Overall transportations costs were up 1.5% year-over-year in December. Inter-city transportation had the largest decline while vehicle insurance had the largest increase.

Health and personal care costs were up 3.0% year-over-year on gains in all sub-components led by health care services.

Clothing and footwear prices were down 8.7% year-over-year in December with decreases in all categories except clothing materials and services. Children's clothing, which was eligible for the temporary GST/HST break, reported the largest decrease in clothing and footwear prices with a 15.4% decline.

Nova Scotia's overall prices for recreation, education and reading were up 0.6% from December 2023 to December 2024, with the fastest increase coming from other culture and recreation, and education. Prices declined the most from the previous year for recreational equipment/services (excluding RVs) and home entertainment equipment and services.

Nova Scotia's prices for alcohol, tobacco and recreational cannabis were up 0.4% year-over-year, with price increases offset by steep declines in beer and wine from stores, which were eligible for the temporary GST/HST break.

 

Trends

Since the start of the Bank of Canada's inflation-targeting monetary policy regime, inflation for all items has generally been in the 0-4% range.  Periods of above target inflation are typically followed by periods of slow price growth or declines. The most recent acceleration in inflation was the strongest since the inflation-targeting era began, though this inflation is starting to fade with tighter monetary policy and lower commodity prices.   

Many of these periods of accelerated and slowed inflation are attributable to volatile commodity prices, especially energy prices.  Once the more volatile commodity prices are excluded, inflation in Nova Scotia has largely been below 2% for much of the last 20 years.  However, the recent rise in inflation through 2021-2024 spreads beyond commodity prices, resulting in the longest period under the Bank of Canada's inflation-targeting regime with Nova Scotia's CPI excluding food and energy above 3%.

The Bank of Canada examines 'core' measures of inflation that are intended to remove the effects of volatile components and capture underlying inflation trends that are more connected to capacity in the Canadian economy.  Core measures of inflation may also indicate where all items inflation is headed. 

Canada's core measures of inflation remained mostly at or below the Bank's target of 2% for over a decade prior to 2021.  However, after prices accelerated in 2023, core inflation measures also started to rise, peaking at over 6% for the CPI-common measure before declining. Compared to the previous month, year-over-year core inflation measures in December 2024 were unchanged for CPI-common (2.0%), and down for CPI-median (2.4%) and CPI-trim (2.5%), and up for CPI-core (1.8%).

  

ANNUAL (2024 vs 2023)

The annual average of Nova Scotia’s all items CPI slowed to 2.3% growth in 2024, compared to 4.0% average inflation in 2023. Nationally, consumer prices increased 2.4% in 2024 down from 3.9% in 2023. On average, Alberta had the highest inflation in 2024 while Manitoba had the lowest inflation. All provinces reported decelerating price growth compared to 2023.

Nova Scotia's energy prices increased 1.6% in 2024, faster than the national decline of 0.6%. Five provinces reported increasing energy prices in 2024, with the fastest increase in Alberta, and the largest decrease in Manitoba. 

Nova Scotia's food price inflation averaged 3.1% in 2024, faster than the national increase of 2.7%. All provinces reported rising food prices in 2024 with the fastest increase in Prince Edward Island and the slowest increases in Québec. Food inflation slowed for all provinces compared to 2023.

Nova Scotia's all items CPI excluding food and energy prices averaged 2.3% inflation in 2024, below the national average of 2.6%. All provinces reported higher prices with the fastest gains in Alberta and the slowest in Manitoba. Compared to 2023, inflation for the all-items CPI excluding food and energy slowed for all provinces.

Nova Scotia's shelter prices averaged 4.8% inflation in 2024, slower than the national increase of 5.7%. All provinces reported higher shelter prices for the year with the fastest gains in Alberta and slowest gains in Prince Edward Island.

Among detailed food products with available data, Nova Scotia's average inflation in 2024 was fastest for preserved fruit, fresh vegetables, and beef. The largest price declines were reported in fish and pork.  

In detailed shelter cost components, rent and electricity reported the fastest average inflation in 2024. Fuel oil reported the largest decline in prices compared to 2023. 

Household operations/furnishings costs were up 0.4% overall in 2024.  Prices increased the most for internet access followed by financial services and furniture. The largest declines were in telephones, follwed by utensils, tableware and cookware.

Overall transportations costs were up 1.5% on average in 2024, with the largest increase reported for vehicle insurance. Inter-city transportation and city bus prices reported the only average price declines in 2024.

Health and personal care costs were up 3.2% in 2024 with gains in all sub-components led by personal care services.

Clothing and footwear prices were down 5.9% in 2024 with decreases in all categories except clothing materials and services, with children's clothing reporting the largest average annual decline.

Nova Scotia's overall prices for recreation, education and reading were up 0.8% on average in 2024. The fastest price increases were in other culture and recreation, while home entertainment equipment and services reported the largest drop in prices. 

Nova Scotia's prices for alcohol, tobacco and recreational cannabis were up 3.5% in 2024 with gains in all categories, led by alcohol from licensed establishments. 

 

Trends

From 2012 to 2020 Nova Scotia's all items CPI inflation remained within the 0% to 2% range, averaging 1.3% growth per year. Inflation accelerated to 4.1% in 2021, and again to 7.5% in 2022, before slowing to 4.0% in 2023 and 2.3% in 2024. Excluding energy and food prices, Nova Scotia's inflation was more stable through the 2010s, averaging 1.6% growth per year. Starting in 2021, inflation in prices excluding food and energy increased to 2.5%, then 4.3% in 2022, before slowing slightly to 4.2% in 2023 and more rapidly to 2.3% in 2024. 

 

  

 

 

Source: Statistics Canada. Table 18-10-0004-01  Consumer Price Index, monthly, not seasonally adjustedTable 18-10-0256-01  Consumer Price Index (CPI) statistics, measures of core inflation and other related statistics - Bank of Canada definitionsTable  18-10-0005-01   Consumer Price Index, annual average, not seasonally adjusted