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March 22, 2019ANALYSIS OF NOVA SCOTIA'S CONSUMER PRICE INDEX FOR FEBRUARY 2019 TRENDS - FEBRUARY 2019
In Nova Scotia February 2019, year over year growth for the All-Items Consumer Price Index was 1.0 per cent, below the national average of 1.5 per cent. Monthly consumer prices were up 0.5 per cent in Nova Scotia while nationally there was an increase of 0.7 per cent.
Within Atlantic Canada, Nova Scotia had the highest year over year consumer price inflation (+1.0 per cent), followed by New Brunswick (+0.9 per cent), Newfoundland and Labrador (+0.5 per cent) and Prince Edward island (+0.4 per cent)
In February 2019, all provinces experienced positive year over year inflation, the highest in British Columbia (+2.2 per cent).
Nova Scotia's consumer price inflation (year over year growth in CPI) excluding food and energy rose 1.5 per cent in February, below the national rate of 2.0 per cent. Price level gains for this index were largest in British Columbia (+2.3 per cent), and lowest in Newfoundland and Labrador (+0.6 per cent). On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's index excluding food and energy was up 0.6 per cent.
The main contributors to the monthly (February 2019 vs. January 2019) NS CPI movement:
Purchase and leasing of passenger vehicles(+1.5%)
Gasoline (+4.3%)
Rent (-1.5%)
Financial services (-3.4%)
The main contributors to the annual (February 2019 vs. February 2018) NS CPI movement:
Passenger vehicle insurance premiums (+9.0%)
Mortgage interest costs (NA)
Gasoline (-9.4%)
Traveller accommodation (-10.6%)
The CPI for food in Nova Scotia increased 1.1 per cent year-over-year with a 0.3 per cent decrease month-to-month. CPI growth in food (year over year) was up in all provinces this month. Manitoba showed the highest year over year food price growth (+3.8%). Nationally, annual food prices increased 3.2 per cent.
The Nova Scotia energy index decreased by 2.8 per cent compared to a year ago. Energy prices declined the most in Ontario (-10.2 per cent) on a year over year basis. Alberta's energy index was up 0.1 per cent, year over year. Nationally, the index was down 5.7 per cent.
Year over year, the consumer price index for shelter increased by 1.9 per cent in Nova Scotia and 2.4 per cent in Canada.
Major Components for February 2019
The following table shows the price increases specific to Nova Scotia for the major components of the CPI this month:
Long Run Trends
The All-Items CPI year over year inflation rate for Nova Scotia was below Canada's in February 2019. Nova Scotia's annual inflation has remained below the Canadian average since mid-2014, with the exception of only a few months. While month to month movements in the indices can be different, over time they generally follow the same overall trend.
Annual inflation for the CPI excluding food and energy was lower for Nova Scotia (at 1.5 per cent) compared to Canada in February.
Bank of Canada's preferred measures of core inflation
Compared with February 2018, CPI-Median and CPI-Common rose 1.8 per cent and CPI-Trim was up 1.9 per cent in Canada. All-items CPI excluding eight of the most volatile components as defined by the Bank of Canada and excluding the effect of changes in indirect taxes (formerly referred to as CPIX) rose 1.5 per cent year over year in February 2019.
Appendix Tables and Charts
A NOTE ON CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
On February 27, 2019, with the release of the January 2019 CPI, the basket of goods and services used in the calculation of the CPI was updated using 2017 weights. The base year, in which the CPI is set to equal 100, remains 2002.
The 2017 basket classification system was updated to add new, relevant goods and services, while removing some that are obsolete. Some minor changes will be made to published index titles in order to clarify the definition of some series.
The alcoholic beverages and tobacco products major component has been updated to include recreational cannabis. Additionally, medicinal cannabis has been added under medicinal and pharmaceutical products.
There is also a change to the calculation of the rent index. Month over month changes to the rent index will not be impacted as the previous month has been linked to the current month. However, year over year change calculations should be interpreted with caution, particularly in the year following this implemented change.
Source: Statistics Canada data portal: Tables 18-10-0004-01 and 18-10-0256-01