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April 15, 2025ANALYSIS OF CONSUMER PRICE INDEX FOR MARCH 2025 Please note that a temporary GST/HST break was in effect from December 14, 2024 to February 15, 2025, which affected consumer prices reflected in provincial and national statistics, including month-over-month changes for March. Major CPI components impacted by the tax break were food, recreation, and clothing and footwear, with approximately 10% of the all-item CPI basket affected by the exemption. Provinces with harmonized sales taxes (Ontario, New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island) will be more impacted than other provinces.
Nova Scotia’s all items Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerated to 2.3% year-over-year in March 2025, up from 2.1% year-over-year in February.
Nationally, consumer prices decelerated to 2.3% year-over-year growth in March 2025, down from 2.6% in February. Inflation was highest in Manitoba and slowest in Newfoundland and Labrador.
The most significant upward contributors (combining price increase as well as share of the consumption basket) to Nova Scotia's 2.3% year-over-year inflation were: rent, passenger vehicle insurance premiums, mortgage interest cost, homeowners' replacement cost, and food purchased from restaurants.
The largest downward year-over-year contributions were from: gasoline, travel tours, inter-city transportation, telephone services and traveller accommodation.
On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's all items CPI was up 0.7% from February 2025 to March 2025. National prices were up 0.3% on average, with increases in the inflation rate reported in all provinces except Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia and Québec reported the highest monthly inflation rate.
Major upward contributors to Nova Scotia's monthly consumer prices were: food purchased from restaurants, homeowners' replacement costs, recreational equipment and services (excluding recreational vehicles), beer purchased from stores, and other food preparations. Major downward contributors were: gasoline, telephone services, fuel oil and other fuels, fresh vegetables, and cereal products (excluding baby food).
Energy prices play a significant role in inflation rates. Nova Scotia's energy prices were down 1.9% from March 2024 to March 2025, the largest decrease among provinces. Year-over-year energy prices were down 0.3% nationally with seven of the ten provinces reporting decreasing energy prices. Manitoba reported the fastest year-over-year increase in energy prices.
On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's energy prices fell 2.4% from February 2025 to March 2025. National energy prices were down 1.2% with every province reporting lower prices compared to the previous month. Prince Edward Island reported the fastest monthly decrease in energy prices, while Alberta reported the slowest.
Nova Scotia's energy prices (and overall inflation) are more sensitive to fluctuations in the global price of crude oil. In March 2025, gasoline prices were down 4.2% compared to a year ago in Nova Scotia. Seven of ten provinces reported lower gasoline prices, with the steepest fall in Québec. Manitoba saw the largest year-over-year increase in gasoline prices.
Gasoline prices were down 3.1% from February to March in Nova Scotia, and were down 1.8% nationally. All provinces reported lower monthly gasoline prices with the largest decrease in Prince Edward Island, while Saskatchewan, Alberta and Ontario saw the slowest declines.
Nova Scotia's year-over-year fuel oil prices were down 1.7% in March 2025 compared with March 2024. Nationally, the fuel oil and other fuels index increased 1.1% compared to March 2024. Saskatchewan reported the steepest drop in fuel oil prices while Québec reported the fastest increase.
On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's fuel oil prices were down 3.9%. National fuel oil prices were down 2.4% from February to March, with all provinces reporting decreases. Prince Edward Island reported the steepest monthly fuel oil price decrease.
Food prices increased 3.4% in Nova Scotia year over year. National food prices grew 3.2% in March 2025. Food prices were up in every province, led by Saskatchewan. Alberta and Newfoundland and Labrador reported the lowest food price inflation.
On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's food prices increased 2.3% from February to March. National food prices were up 1.7% from February to March. All provinces reported higher prices on a monthly basis, with the largest monthly food price increase in Prince Edward Island, and the slowest increase in British Columbia and Alberta.
The five HST provinces (Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Ontario) saw faster monthly increases in food prices than the other five provinces as the temporary GST/HST break was in effect for most of February, but removed by March.
Food and energy prices are heavily influenced by volatile global commodity markets. Nova Scotia's underlying inflation rate excluding food and energy was 2.6% from March 2024 to March 2025. Nationally, inflation excluding food and energy was 2.4% with year-over-year increases in all provinces. Alberta reported the fastest growth while Newfoundland and Labrador reported the slowest growth in inflation excluding food and energy prices.
On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's prices for all items excluding food and energy were up 0.7% from February to March, the fastest gain among provinces. Nationally, prices for all items excluding food and energy were up 0.2%, with increases in seven of ten provinces. Ontario, Manitoba and Saskatchewan all saw monthly declines in prices for all items excluding food and energy.
Year-over-year shelter cost inflation was 4.8% in Nova Scotia in March 2025. National shelter prices were up 3.9% with increases in all provinces. Québec reported the largest year-over-year increase in shelter prices while Prince Edward Island reported the slowest increase.
Monthly shelter costs were up 0.6% in Nova Scotia from February to March, the second-largest increase among provinces behind Québec. Nationally, shelter costs were up 0.2% with increases in five provinces, and no change in Newfoundland and Labrador. The largest monthly decline in shelter prices was in Prince Edward Island.
Among detailed food products with available data, Nova Scotia's year-over-year inflation was fastest for beef, chicken, and preserved fruit. The largest year-over-year price declines were for sugar/confectionary, fish/seafood, and fats/oils.
In detailed shelter cost components, fuel oil/other fuels and home maintenance/repairs saw the only year-over-year price declines. Prices for all other shelter cost components were up year-over-year, led by water and rent.
Household operations/furnishings costs were up 0.4% overall. The largest year-over-year price increase was for paper/plastic/aluminum products, while prices fell the most for telephones, cleaning products, and utensils/tableware/cookware.
Clothing and footwear prices were up 0.7% year-over-year in March with the fastest price increases in clothing accessories/jewellery and men's clothing, while the largest price declines were in footwear and women's clothing.
Health and personal care costs were up 3.0% year-over-year on gains in all sub-components except non-prescribed medicine. Health care and personal care services reported the largest price increases.
Overall transportation costs were up 0.4% year-over-year in March. Vehicle insurance had the largest increase while inter-city transportation had the largest decline, with no change in vehicle registration prices.
Nova Scotia's overall prices for recreation, education and reading were down 0.4% from March 2024 to March 2025 with the fastest decline in travel services/accommodations and home entertainment equipment/services, and the fastest increase for other culture/recreation.
Nova Scotia's prices for alcohol, tobacco and recreational cannabis were up 3.3% year-over-year, with increases in all categories, led by cigarettes and beer from stores.
Trends
Since the start of the Bank of Canada's inflation-targeting monetary policy regime, inflation for all items has generally been in the 0-4% range. Periods of above target inflation are typically followed by periods of slow price growth or declines. The most recent acceleration in inflation was the strongest since the inflation-targeting era began, though this inflation has receded with tighter monetary policy and lower commodity prices. Nova Scotia's all-items inflation rate for March of 2.3% was the highest since July 2024
Many of these periods of accelerated and slowed inflation are attributable to volatile commodity prices, especially energy prices. Once the more volatile commodity prices are excluded, inflation in Nova Scotia has largely been below 2% for much of the last 20 years. However, the recent rise in inflation through 2021-2024 spread beyond commodity prices, resulting in the longest period under the Bank of Canada's inflation-targeting regime with Nova Scotia's CPI excluding food and energy above 3%. In March 2025, Nova Scotia's inflation excluding food and energy remained at 2.6% year-over-year.
The Bank of Canada examines 'core' measures of inflation that are intended to remove the effects of volatile components and capture underlying inflation trends that are more connected to capacity in the Canadian economy. Core measures of inflation may also indicate where all items inflation is headed.
Canada's core measures of inflation remained mostly at or below the Bank's target of 2% for over a decade prior to 2021. However, core inflation measures rose in 2022, peaking at over 6% for the CPI-common measure before declining around the beginning of 2023.
The Bank of Canada's year-over-year core inflation measures in March 2025 were:
- CPI-common: 2.3% (down from 2.5% the previous month)
- CPI-median: 2.9% (unchanged from 2.9% the previous month)
- CPI-trim: 2.8% (down from 2.9% the previous month)
The core CPI excluding volatile products and the effects of indirect taxes was up 2.2% (down from 2.7% in the previous month).
Source: Statistics Canada. Table 18-10-0004-01 Consumer Price Index, monthly, not seasonally adjusted; Table 18-10-0256-01 Consumer Price Index (CPI) statistics, measures of core inflation and other related statistics - Bank of Canada definitions
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