Government of Nova Scotia, Canada

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Thomas StorringDirector – Economics and Statistics
Tel: 902-424-2410Email: thomas.storring@novascotia.ca

January 06, 2025
TRENDS IN GDP PER CAPITA, 1981-2023

Statistics Canada's recent provincial economic accounts showed that Nova Scotia reported the lowest real GDP per capita among provinces in 2023.  This is not the first time Nova Scotia's real GDP per capita has been below that of any other province; similar results were reported in 1996 and 2006.

The report that follows compares per capita values of the major components of GDP, measured as a share of the national per capita average.  Values are calculated in real terms where possible.  Otherwise, the data are reported at current prices (ie: nominal values).     

Since 1981, Nova Scotia has consistently had real GDP per capita that ranged from 70 to just over 80% of the national per capita average.  Prince Edward Island has reported a similar gap in real GDP per capita since the mid-1990s.  In contrast, Alberta and Saskatchewan have consistently reported substantially higher real GDP per capita than the national average.  Ontario and British Columbia both reported real GDP per capita very close to the national average in recent years.  Newfoundland and Labrador's real GDP per capita was similar to Nova Scotia's in the 1980s, then it experienced a rapid rise, peaking at over 120% of the national average in 2007-2008 before falling back below the national average again in 2023.  Real GDP per capita in Manitoba and Québec has been between 84-92% of the national per capita average over the last 42 years.  New Brunswick's real GDP per capita rose above 80% of the national average from 2002-2013 but has recently fallen below 80% again and is very similar to Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island's values.  

Despite lower GDP per capita, Nova Scotia's real household consumer expenditures per capita have been within 10% of the national average since 1982.  British Columbia and Alberta consistently report higher real household consumption per capita while Québec, Manitoba, New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island have reported the lowest consumer expenditures per capita. 

Nova Scotia's government consumption expenditures per capita have typically by the highest or almost the highest among provinces.  The data includes all levels of government and reflects Nova Scotia's notably large military presence (compared with the size of its population).  Nova Scotia, along with the rest of Atlantic Canada and the prairies has a more rural population that does not permit economies of scale in public services enjoyed by large urban provinces like Ontario, Alberta, Québec and British Columbia.   

Nova Scotia's level of real residential investment per capita has risen from just over 40% of the national per capita average in the early 1980s to 91% of the national average by 2023 (4th highest among provinces).  Ontario, Alberta and British Columbia have often reported substantially higher levels of real residential investment per capita.   Although rising in recent years, real residential investment per capita remains lower in Newfoundland and Labrador, New Brunswick and Saskatchewan.

Non-residential investments (structures, machinery and equipment) per capita in Nova Scotia are typically at or near the lowest among provinces.  There were exceptions in the late 1990s with the offshore natural gas developments and installation of a new paper machine.  Among provinces, Canada's major natural resource producers (Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador) have consistently had much higher levels of real per capita investment.  In recent years, British Columbia has also reported rising investments in non-residential structures, machinery and equipment while Manitoba has reported a notable decline (relative to national averages).

Intellectual property investment (which includes resource exploration) in Nova Scotia has consistently been below the real per capita national average, with the exceptions of periods in the early 1980s, late 1990s/early 2000s and mid 2010s.  Over this time, Alberta has had notably higher intellectual property investment, though in recent years this has contracted to levels similar to those of Ontario, Québec and Newfoundland and Labrador. 

In recent years, Nova Scotia's level of real government investment in structures, machinery and equipment has risen substantially above all other provinces since 2018.  This includes all levels of government and reflects defence procurements.   Manitoba and New Brunswick report the lowest levels of real per capita government investments.

Nova Scotia reports the lowest levels (by a margin) in real per capita international exports.  Saskatchewan, Alberta, Ontario and Newfoundland and Labrador report consistently higher levels of real per capita international exports.  Both New Brunswick and Manitoba real per capita international exports have fallen substantially relative to national averages since 2009.

Nova Scotia reports the second lowest nominal level of interprovincial exports per capita, ahead of only Newfoundland and Labrador (which had reported the highest per capita interprovincial exports as recently as 2012).   Alberta and Saskatchewan consistently report higher per capita nominal exports to other provinces, as do New Brunswick and Manitoba.  British Columbia, Ontario and Québec all consistently report interprovincial exports per capita below the national average. 

Nova Scotia has reported the second lowest real international imports per capita since 2010, falling below 80% of the national per capita average in most years.  Prince Edward Island reported the lowest real international imports per capita - never even reaching 60% of the national per capita average.  New Brunswick and Ontario consistently reported the highest real international imports per capita.  

Nova Scotia consistently reported nominal interprovincial imports per capita that were well above the national average.  In recent years, Saskatchewan has reported substantially higher interprovincial imports per capita.  Ontario and Québec consistently reported the lowest interprovincial imports per capita.

Final expenditures on consumption and investment along with net exports generate income for businesses and households. 

Nova Scotia's corporate net operating surplus per capita (measured in nominal terms) has been the lowest among provinces since 2008, falling to just 26.8% of the national per capita average in 2023.  Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador were the only provinces with corporate net operating surplus per capita in excess of the national average in the last 3 years.

Nova Scotia's net mixed income of unincorporated businesses was above the national per capita average (4th highest among provinces).  British Columbia has consistently reported the strongest per capita mixed income of unincorporated businesses while Québec, New Brunswick and Newfoundland and Labrador typically report the lowest net mixed income per capita. 

Net mixed income, employee compensation, property income receipts and current transfer receipts are the components of household income.  Employee compensation and net mixed income are measured in GDP accounts, while property income receipts and current transfers are not counted as part of GDP.

Nova Scotia's employee compensation per capita (nominal) has been between 80 and 90% of the national per capita average since 1999.  Alberta and Ontario and the only provinces that consistently report per capita employee compensation above the national average.   The Maritime provinces (and recently Manitoba) usually report the lowest employee compensation per capita.  Throughout most of the 1980s and 1990s, Saskatchewan reported employee compensation per capita below that of Nova Scotia, but since 2005 Saskatchewan's employee compensation per capita has risen well above that of Nova Scotia.  Likewise, Newfoundland and Labrador's employee compensation per capita was consistently below that of Nova Scotia, but since 2008 has risen well above Nova Scotia's average.

Nova Scotia's property income receipts (investment income as a result of ownership of financial assets or rents as a result of ownership of natural resources) were briefly above the national per capita average from 1999-2006, with the exception of 2001.  Since 2006, Nova Scotia's per capita property income receipts have fallen further behind the national per capita value.  Alberta, British Columbia and Ontario consistently report higher property income receipts per capita while the other Atlantic provinces report the lowest property income receipts.

Current transfers to households include items such as employment insurance benefits, CPP/OAS benefits for seniors, child benefits, social assistance, workers compensation and the GST/HST credit.

Nova Scotia's current transfers per capita are typically higher than the national per capita average, though rarely more than 10% above the national per capita average.  Newfoundland and Labrador receives by far the highest current transfers per capita (followed by Prince Edward Island, New Brunswick and in recent years Saskatchewan). British Columbia and Ontario reported the lowest per capita transfers.  Alberta and Manitoba also usually report lower per capita current transfers than the national average, but in recent years current transfers per capita for both provinces have risen above the national average.       

Including employee compensation (below average), net mixed income (above average, but only recently), property income receipts (below average) and current transfers (above average), Nova Scotia's total household income per capita has been between 85 and 91% of the national average for the last 40 years.  Alberta, British Columbia and Ontario typically report per capita household income that exceeds the national average, though not in all years for Ontario and British Columbia.  In recent years, Prince Edward Island, New Brunswick and (recently) Manitoba reported the lowest household income per capita.  Household income per capita in Newfoundland and Labrador had at one point been the lowest among provinces, but growth through the 1990s and 2000s raised this province's per capita household income briefly above the national average from 2013-2016.  Likewise, per capita household incomes in Saskatchewan rose above the national average from 2011-2017.

Source: Statistics Canada. Table  36-10-0221-01   Gross domestic product, income-based, provincial and territorial, annual (x 1,000,000)Table  36-10-0222-01   Gross domestic product, expenditure-based, provincial and territorial, annual (x 1,000,000)Table 36-10-0226-01  Household sector, selected indicators, provincial and territorial



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