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Thomas StorringDirector – Economics and Statistics
Tel: 902-424-2410Email: thomas.storring@novascotia.ca

December 17, 2024
ANALYSIS OF CONSUMER PRICE INDEX FOR NOVEMBER 2024

Nova Scotia’s all items Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerated to 1.7% year-over-year in November 2024, up from 1.5% year-over-year in October. 

Nova Scotia's inflation has been slowing after peaking at 9.3% in June 2022, though there have been periods of rising inflation, particularly due to higher energy prices.  

Nationally, consumer prices decelerated to 1.9% year-over-year growth in November 2024, down from 2.0% in October. Inflation was highest in Alberta and slowest in Manitoba. 

The most significant upward contributors (combining price increase as well as share of the consumption basket) to Nova Scotia's 1.7% year-over-year inflation were: rent, mortgage interest cost, passenger vehicle insurance premiums, food purchased from restaurants, and electricity.

The largest downward year-over-year contributions were from: fuel oil and other fuels, travel tours, gasoline, women's clothing, and children's clothing.

On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's all items CPI was up 0.4% from October to November 2024. National prices were unchanged on average, with increases reported in six provinces, and no change in two. Québec and Manitoba both reported 0.1% declines in prices.

Major upward contributors to Nova Scotia's monthly consumer prices were: rent, fuel oil and other fuels, gasoline, paper, plastic and aluminum foil supplies and passenger vehicle insurance premiums. Major downward contributors were: clothing accessories, watches and jewellery, telephone services, traveller accommodation, fresh fruit, and non-alcoholic beverages.

Energy prices play a significant role in inflation rates. Nova Scotia's energy prices were down 3.0% from November 2023 to November 2024. Year-over-year energy prices were down 1.4% nationally with all provinces except Newfoundland and Labrador and New Brunswick reporting lower energy prices. Manitoba reported the fastest year-over-year decline in energy prices.

On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's energy prices rose 1.4% from October to November 2024. National energy prices were up 0.3% with six provinces reporting higher prices compared to the previous month. Saskatchewan and Manitoba reported the largest monthly declines in energy prices. Prince Edward Island reported the largest monthly increase (followed by Nova Scotia).

Nova Scotia's energy prices (and overall inflation) are more sensitive to fluctuations in the global price of crude oil. In November 2024, gasoline prices were down 3.3% compared to a year ago in Nova Scotia. All provinces except Alberta, Prince Edward Island and Ontario reported lower gasoline prices, with the steepest drop in Manitoba. 

Gasoline prices were up 1.2% from October to November in Nova Scotia, and were unchanged nationally. Six provinces reported higher monthly gasoline prices with the largest increases in Québec, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia, with the largest monthly decline in Alberta.

Nova Scotia's year-over-year fuel oil prices were down 14.9%. Nationally, the fuel oil and other fuels index declined 14.7% compared to November 2023. New Brunswick  reported the steepest drop in fuel oil prices while British Columbia reported the smallest decline. 

On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's fuel oil prices were up 4.4%. National fuel oil prices were up 3.7% from October to November. Prince Edward Island reported the steepest monthly fuel oil price increase, while Saskatchewan reported the largest decline. 

Food price inflation slowed to 2.9% in Nova Scotia (November 2024 vs November 2023). National food prices increased 2.8% in November. Food prices were up in all provinces. Manitoba reported the highest food price inflation while Québec reported the slowest food price growth.

On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's food prices were unchanged from October to November, the lowest price growth among provinces. National food prices were up 0.5% from October to November.  Eight provinces reported higher prices on a monthly basis. The largest monthly food price increase was in Québec.

 

Food and energy prices are heavily influenced by volatile global commodity markets. Nova Scotia's underlying inflation rate excluding food and energy was 2.0% from November 2023 to November 2024. Nationally, inflation excluding food and energy was 1.9% with year-over-year increases in all provinces. Alberta reported the fastest growth while Newfoundland and Labrador reported the slowest growth in inflation excluding food and energy prices.

On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's prices for all items excluding food and energy were up 0.3% from October to November 2024. Nationally, prices for all items excluding food and energy were down 0.1%, with increases in five provinces and no change in British Columbia. Québec reported the fastest price decline in all items excluding food and energy, while Nova Scotia reported the largest monthly increase.

Year-over-year shelter cost inflation was 3.0% in Nova Scotia in November 2024. National shelter prices were up 4.6% with increases in all provinces. Alberta reported the largest year-over-year increase in shelter prices while Prince Edward Island reported the slowest increase.

Monthly shelter costs were up 1.1% in Nova Scotia from October to November 2024. Nationally, shelter costs were up 0.3% with increases in all provinces except New Brunswick with no change. The fastest shelter price increases were in Nova Scotia. 

Among detailed food products with available data, Nova Scotia's year-over-year inflation was fastest for preserved fruit, non-alcoholic beverages, cheese, chicken and beef. The largest year-over-year price declines were for fresh fruit and fish, seafood.

In detailed shelter cost components, fuel oil reported the steepest year-over-year price decline. Prices for most other shelter cost components were up year-over-year, led by water, rent and electricity.  

Household operations/furnishings costs were up 2.8% overall. The largest year-over-year price increases were for furniture and paper, plastic, aluminum products. Prices fell for textiles, cleaning products, telephones and cookware.

Clothing and footwear prices were down 8.2% year-over-year in November with declines in all sub-components except clothing materials and services.

Health and personal care costs were up 3.1% year-over-year on gains in all sub-components. Health care and personal care services reported the largest price increases.

Overall transportation costs were up 0.7% year-over-year in November. Vehicle insurance had the largest increase while gasoline had the largest decline.

Nova Scotia's overall prices for recreation, education and reading were down 1.3% from November 2023 to November 2024 with the fastest decline in home entertainment equipment and services and the fastest increase for reading(excl. textbooks).

Nova Scotia's prices for alcohol, tobacco and recreational cannabis were up 3.7% year-over-year with growth in all categories. Alcohol from licensed establishments had the largest increase.

Trends

Since the start of the Bank of Canada's inflation-targeting monetary policy regime, inflation for all items has generally been in the 0-4% range. Periods of above target inflation are typically followed by periods of slow price growth or declines. The most recent acceleration in inflation was the strongest since the inflation-targeting era began, though this inflation has receded with tighter monetary policy and lower commodity prices.   

Many of these periods of accelerated and slowed inflation are attributable to volatile commodity prices, especially energy prices. Once the more volatile commodity prices are excluded, inflation in Nova Scotia has largely been below 2% for much of the last 20 years. However, the recent rise in inflation through 2021-2024 spread beyond commodity prices, resulting in the longest period under the Bank of Canada's inflation-targeting regime with Nova Scotia's CPI excluding food and energy above 3%. In November 2024, Nova Scotia's inflation excluding food and energy has slowed to 2.0% year-over-year. 

The Bank of Canada examines 'core' measures of inflation that are intended to remove the effects of volatile components and capture underlying inflation trends that are more connected to capacity in the Canadian economy. Core measures of inflation may also indicate where all items inflation is headed. 

Canada's core measures of inflation remained mostly at or below the Bank's target of 2% for over a decade prior to 2021. However, core inflation measures rose in 2022, peaking at over 6% for the CPI-common measure before declining around the beginning of 2023.

The Bank of Canada's year-over-year core inflation measures in November 2024 were:

  • CPI-common: 2.0% (down from 2.2% the previous month)
  • CPI-median: 2.6% (unchanged from 2.6% the previous month)
  • CPI-trim: 2.7% (unchanged from 2.7% the previous month)

The core CPI excluding volatile products and the effects of indirect taxes was up 1.6% (down from 1.7% in the previous month).

Source: Statistics Canada. Table 18-10-0004-01  Consumer Price Index, monthly, not seasonally adjustedTable 18-10-0256-01  Consumer Price Index (CPI) statistics, measures of core inflation and other related statistics - Bank of Canada definitions



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