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December 19, 2023NOVA SCOTIA QUARTERLY POPULATION ESTIMATES AS OF OCTOBER 1, 2023 
Nova Scotia's population was 1,066,416 as of October 1, 2023. Nova Scotia's population increased by 7,722 (+0.73%) from July 1, 2023.
From July 1 to September 30, there were positive contributions to population growth from international sources as immigration (+2,616) was substantially higher than net emigration (-116) while the number of non-permanent residents entering Nova Scotia (+9,882) substantially exceeded the number leaving the province (-4,235). Natural change continues to put downward pressure on Nova Scotia's population as deaths (-2,680) outpace births (+2,271). For the first time since 2015, the number of Nova Scotians leaving the province for another province or territory (-4,652) was larger than the number moving to Nova Scotia from another province or territory (+4,636), though this net negative interprovincial migration was small (-16).
Nova Scotia's population growth from July 1 to September 30 was slower than in the same period last year, but still elevated from growth observed in similar periods in 2021 and 2019 (2020 was distorted by pandemic-related restrictions on relocation).
From July 1 to September 30, 2023 Nova Scotia’s population increased 0.73%, while the national population grew 1.07%. All provinces reported increasing populations. Alberta and Ontario reported the fastest population growth this quarter while Newfoundland and Labrador had the slowest growth.
Year-over-year change
Compared with October 1, 2022, Nova Scotia's population increased by 30,750 (+2.97%). This was the third fastest year-over-year growth for Nova Scotia's population for any 12-month period of the quarterly data that started in 1951. Since ending a period of population decline on July 1, 2015 Nova Scotia's population has increased by 131,036.
Contributing to population growth from October 1, 2022 to September 30, 2023 were births (+8,258), immigrants (+10,982), non-permanent resident inflows (+28,932), interprovincial in-migration (+23,836). These gains were partially offset by deaths (-10,868), net emigration (-485), departure of non-permanent residents (-12,368) and out-migrants to other provinces or territories (-17,537).
Over the previous 12 months, the national population grew by 3.19%. Nova Scotia's year-over-year population growth (+2.97%) was slower than the national pace. Over the last year, Alberta (+4.28%) and Prince Edward Island (+3.97%) reported the fastest population gains while Newfoundland and Labrador reported the slowest growth rate (+1.31%).
Nova Scotia's year-over-year population growth of 2.97% (+30,750) was the third fastest pace of year-over-year growth in the data series starting in 1951. Only the periods from April 1, 2022-March 31, 2023 (+3.25%) and July 1, 2022-June 30, 2023 (+3.24%) were faster.
Immigration from other countries has been a strong contributor to population growth in Nova Scotia in recent years. For the period July 1 to September 30, an additional 2,616 immigrants came to the province. This was considerably slower than in the same period last year, during which immigration backlogs resulting from the pandemic were cleared. Over the past year (October 1, 2022-September 30, 2023) 10,982 immigrants have arrived in Nova Scotia.
The net change in non-permanent residents in the province was a net inflow of 5,647 from July 1 to September 30 coming from an 9,882 inflow and an outflow of 4,235 non-permanent residents. This was the second largest net increase for non-permanent residents for any recent quarter. Over the past year, non-permanent residents living in the province has increased by 16,564.
The number of non-permanent residents arriving in Nova Scotia in the last four quarters was 28,932.
In the last four quarters, 12,368 non-permanent residents left Nova Scotia.
Nova Scotia’s natural population change (the number of births less the number of deaths) has been negative for several years. Between July 1 and September 30 there were 2,271 births and 2,680 deaths, amounting to a natural population decline of 409. Quarterly population decline has stabilized in the July 1-September 30 period in the last four years.
Since October 1, 2022, births of 8,258 were outnumbered by deaths of 10,868, resulting in a 2,610 natural population decline.
A total of 4,636 new Nova Scotians arrived in the province from other parts of Canada between July 1 and September 30. Although this was similar to pre-pandemic population inflows from other provinces, it was less than during the same months of 2021 and 2022. Since October 1, 2022 there have been 23,836 interprovincial migrants to Nova Scotia.
A total of 4,652 Nova Scotians left the province bound for other parts of Canada between July 1 and September 30. This was similar to the pace observed in the same months of 2022, but higher than in the same months in previous years. Over the past year, Nova Scotia has seen 17,537 interprovincial outmigrants.
From July 1 to September 30, Nova Scotia reported its first net interprovincial population loss (-16) since 2015 (July 1-September 30). Since October 1, 2022, Nova Scotia's net interprovincial migration was positive (+6,299).
Ontario continues to account for the largest number of in-migrants to Nova Scotia, however this pace is slowing. Migration from Ontario to Nova Scotia decreased from 3,949 between July 1, 2022 and September 30, 2022 to 2,230 from July 1, 2023 to September 30, 2023. In-migrants were up (compared to the same period in 2022) only from Prince Edward Island, Manitoba and Québec.
Ontario and Alberta were the largest destinations for those leaving Nova Scotia between July 1 and September 30 of 2023. Out-migration to other provinces was up (comparing July 1-September 2023 with the same period in 2022) for Newfoundland and Labrador, Québec, Ontario, Nunavut and the Northwest Territories.
In the last quarter, Nova Scotia's net interprovincial migration was negative - reflecting a large net outflow to Alberta as well as smaller net outflows to British Columbia, Québec and New Brunswick. The positive net inflow from Ontario slowed considerably from +2,282 in July 1-September 30, 2022 to +445 from July 1-September 30, 2023.
For October 1, 2022 to September 30, 2023, the largest source of interprovincial in-migration was from Ontario (12,267), although it declined from the previous year. In-migration was lower from all provinces and territories except Québec and Yukon compared to the previous year.
From October 1, 2022 to September 30, 2023 the primary destinations for outmigration from Nova Scotia were Ontario and Alberta, followed by British Columbia and New Brunswick. Compared to the previous year, outmigration was lower to all provinces and territories except British Columbia, Nunavut and the Northwest Territories.
Ontario, British Columbia and Quebec were the largest sources of positive net interprovincial migration for October 1, 2022 to September 30, 2023. Over the past year, Nova Scotia reported net negative migration with each of the three other Atlantic Provinces.
Non-permanent residents
Statistics Canada has released additional information on the stock and flow of non-permanent residents in the provinces. The number of non-permanent residents in Nova Scotia has increased from 34,877 as of October 1, 2022 to 51,441 as of October 1, 2023. Non-permanent residents most often hold work permits (24,349), study permits (15,280), or both work and study permits (9,099). Asylum claimants, both with and without study/work permits, were 365 as of October 1, 2023. There were 2,348 other non-permanent residents which are generally family members living with permit holders or persons with temporary residents permits.
Non-permanent residents accounted for 4.8% of Nova Scotia's population as of October 1, 2023. Nationally, non-permanent residents make up 6.2% of the population with the highest share in British Columbia (8.2%) and Ontario (7.2%) and lowest share in Newfoundland and Labrador (2.7%) and Saskatchewan (2.9%).
For the period July 1, 2023 to October 1, 2023, non-permanent resident population in Nova Scotia grew 12.3%. Nationally, the non-permanent resident population was up 14.2% with the fastest growth in New Brunswick and the slowest growth in Manitoba (which was still over 10%).
The non-permanent resident population in Nova Scotia has increased 47.5% since October 1, 2022. Nationally, the non-permanent resident population increased 47.1% with the fastest growth in Alberta and the slowest in Prince Edward Island.
Source: Statistics Canada. Table 17-10-0009-01 Population estimates, quarterly; Table 17-10-0020-01 Estimates of the components of interprovincial migration, quarterly; Table 17-10-0040-01 Estimates of the components of international migration, quarterly; Table 17-10-0045-01 Estimates of interprovincial migrants by province or territory of origin and destination, quarterly; Table 17-10-0059-01 Estimates of the components of natural increase, quarterly; Table 17-10-0121-01 Estimates of the number of non-permanent residents by type, quarterly
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