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November 16, 2022ANALYSIS OF NOVA SCOTIA'S CONSUMER PRICE INDEX FOR OCTOBER 2022 TRENDS – October 2022
Nova Scotia’s All-Items Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 7.7% year-over-year in October 2022. Inflation rate in Nova Scotia has been slowing since peaking at 9.3% in June 2022. Nationally, consumer prices increased 6.9% year over year in October, matching the increase in September.
Inflation was highest in Prince Edward Island (+8.7%) while Quebec (+6.4%) had the lowest. Compared to the previous month, prices rose at a faster pace in October compared with September in eight provinces.
Nova Scotia’s consumer price inflation (year-over-year) excluding food and energy increased 5.0% in October 2022. Consumer prices excluding food and energy were up in all provinces led by British Columbia (+6.5%). Newfoundland and Labrador had the smallest increase at 4.1%.
For Canada, consumer price inflation exluding food and energy increased 5.3% year-over-year in October, following a gain of 5.4% in September.
The CPI for food in Nova Scotia increased 9.8% in October, down from the 10.5% year-over-year increase reported in September 2022. All provinces recorded year-over-year increase in food prices led by Prince Edward Island (+11.5%). The lowest food inflation was reported in British Columbia (+9.1%).
Nationally, food prices rose less in October (+10.1%) compared with September (+10.3%) on a year-over-year basis. Prices for meat (+5.5%), fresh fruit (+8.9%), and fresh vegetables (+11.0%) increased at a slower pace in October compared with September, contributing to the deceleration in food prices. Prices for food purchased from stores (+11.0%) continued to increase at a faster rate year over year than the all-items CPI for the eleventh consecutive month. Canadians paid more for dry or fresh pasta (+44.8%), margarine (+40.4%), lettuce (+30.2%), rice and rice-based mixes (+14.7%), and soup (+18.4%).
Year-over-year, shelter costs in Nova Scotia increased 9.7% in October 2022.
In October, shelter prices increased 6.9% year-over-year across Canada. The homeowners' replacement cost index, which is related to the price of new homes, slowed in October (+6.9%) after increasing 7.7% in September. This index has decelerated, on a year-over-year basis, every month since May 2022 (+11.1%). With increasing interest rates, mortgage interest costs increased 11.4% year-over-year in October, posting the highest increase since February 1991.
Compared to October 2021, shelter prices were up in all provinces with the largest increase in Prince Edward Island (+11.4%) and the smallest increase in Quebec (+6.1%).
Nova Scotia's consumer price inflation (year-over-year growth in CPI) for energy was 23.7% in October, above the national average of 16.2%. Prince Edward Island (+28.7%) posted the largest year-over-year increases while Quebec (+13.1%) had the smallest change in the energy index.
Energy prices were higher in all provinces compared to September 2022. For Canada, consumers paid 9.2% more in gasoline in October compared to September, following a 7.4% decline recorded in September.
Nova Scotia's consumer price inflation (year-over-year growth in CPI) excluding energy was 5.9% in October compared to a national rate of 6.2%. British Columbia and Manitoba posted the largest year-over-year gain while Newfoundland and Labrador (+5.2%) had the smallest change in the CPI excluding energy.
Major Components for October 2022
The following table shows the price increases specific to Nova Scotia for the major components of the CPI this month.
The main contributors to the monthly change (October 2022 vs September 2022) in Nova Scotia CPI were:
- Fuel oil and other fuels (+17.8%)
- Gasoline (+8.9%)
- Purchase and operation of recreational vehicles (+4.6%)
- Traveller accommodation (-13.2%)
- Fresh vegetables (-7.8%)
- Home entertaintment equipment, parts and services (-6.5%)
The main contributors to the yearly change (October 2022 vs October 2021) in Nova Scotia CPI were:
- Fuel oil and other fuels (+67.8%)
- Gasoline (+17.3%)
- Purchase and leasing of passenger vehicles (+7.7%)
- Home entertaintment equipment, parts and services (-12.8%)
- Child care and housekeeping services (-11.3%)
- Telephone services (-2.7%)
Long Run Trends
In October 2022, the all-items CPI year-over-year inflation rate for Nova Scotia was 7.7%, above the national inflation rate of 6.9%.
Nova Scotia’s CPI excluding food and energy increased 5.0%. Canada CPI excluding food and energy rose 5.3%. The Nova Scotia CPI excluding food and energy was previously higher in March 2003 (+5.1%).
Bank of Canada's preferred measures of core inflation
Compared to October 2021, CPI-Common increased 6.2%, CPI-Median increased 4.8% and CPI-Trim was up 5.3% in Canada. All-items CPI excluding eight of the most volatile components as defined by the Bank of Canada and excluding the effect of changes in indirect taxes (formerly referred to as CPIX), rose 5.8% year-over-year. The change in the core inflation measures was unchanged for CPI-trim and CPI-median, and down 0.1 percentage points for CPI-common from the previous 12-month period.
Appendix Tables and Charts
Basket Update - May 2022
As part of schedule update, Statistics Canada has updated the basket weights based on 2021 expenditures. A used vehicle price was introduced into the CPI Compared to the previous basket reference year of 2020 for Nova Scotia, increase weight for transportation (+2.04 percentage points) and clothing and footwear (+0.52 percentage points) were offset by lower weights for food (-0.5 percentage points), shelter (-0.53 percentage points), health and personal care (-0.65 percentage points) and recreation, education and reading (-0.5 percentage points). Statistics Canada noted that at national level the headline CPI growth rate would be the same using the previous weights. For full details on the weight update, see An Analysis of the 2022 Consumer Price Index Basket Update, Based on 2021 Expenditures.
Source: Statistics Canada. Table 18-10-0004-01 Consumer Price Index, monthly, not seasonally adjusted; Table 18-10-0256-01 Consumer Price Index (CPI) statistics, measures of core inflation and other related statistics - Bank of Canada definitions
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