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June 22, 2022ANALYSIS OF NOVA SCOTIA'S CONSUMER PRICE INDEX FOR MAY 2022 TRENDS – May 2022
Nova Scotia’s All-Items Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 8.8% year-over-year in May 2022, up from the 7.1% year-over-year increase in April. Inflation was previously higher in the province in September 1982 (9.1%). Nationally, consumer prices also accelerated from 6.8% last month to being 7.7% higher than May 2021. This was also the fastest national inflation since January 1983.
Basket Update
As part of schedule update, Statistics Canada has updated the basket weights based on 2021 expenditures. A used vehicle price was introduced into the CPI Compared to the previous basket reference year of 2020 for Nova Scotia, increase weight for transportation (+2.04 percentage points) and clothing and footwear (+0.52 percentage points) were offset by lower weights for food (-0.5 percentage points), shelter (-0.53 percentage points), health and personal care (-0.65 percentage points) and recreation, education and reading (-0.5 percentage points). Statistics Canada noted that at national level the headline CPI growth rate would be the same using the previous weights. For full details on the weight update, see An Analysis of the 2022 Consumer Price Index Basket Update, Based on 2021 Expenditures.
Inflation was highest in Prince Edward Island (+11.1%) while Saskatchewan (+7.0%) had the lowest. Compared to the previous month, all provinces had increases in the CPI index in May 2022 including Nova Scotia (+2.2%).
Nova Scotia’s consumer price inflation (year-over-year) excluding food and energy increased 4.0% in May 2022. Consumer prices excluding food and energy were up in all provinces led by British Columbia (+6.8%). Newfoundland and Labrador had the smallest increase at 2.7%.
Prices for services increased 5.2% in May compared to the 4.6% gain in April. Prices for traveller accommodation (+40.2%) were notably higher in several provinces, including Nova Scotia (+41.8%). Higher restaurant meal prices (+6.8%) also contributed to higher service prices. Furniture prices rose in May amid higher shipping and inputs costs and tariffs on upholstered furniture from China and Vietnam.
The CPI for food in Nova Scotia increased 8.9% year-over-year in May 2022. Nationally, food prices were up 8.8% from a year earlier. All provinces recorded year-over-year increase in food prices led by Ontario (+9.7%). Saskatchewan and Alberta had the lowest increase at 7.2%.
Compared to the previous month, food prices in Nova Scotia were up 0.5%, below the national average of 0.8%. All provinces recorded seasonally unadjusted month-over-month gains in food prices in May.
Canadians paid 9.7% more for food purchased from stores when compared to May 2021 - same change as April. Prices rose in nearly all food products as supply chain disruptions, higher transportation and input costs put pressure on prices. Edible fats and oils (+30.0%) had largest increase on record driven by cooking oil prices and fresh vegetables prices were up 10.3% including increase in the onions, peppers and carrot category. Prices for frozen fish were up 11.7% compared to May 2021 due to input costs and introduction of tariffs related to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Meat price were up 9.0%, a slower pace than previous month (+10.1%).
Year-over-year, shelter costs in Nova Scotia increased 10.8% in May 2022.
In May, shelter prices increased 7.4% year-over-year across Canada, the same pace as last month and also the fastest pace of growth since June 1983. Homeowners' replacement cost slowed.
Compared to May 2021, shelter prices were up in all provinces with the largest increase in Prince Edward Island (+16.2%) and the smallest increase in Saskatchewan (+4.5%).
Nova Scotia's consumer price inflation (year-over-year growth in CPI) for energy was 46.8% in May, above the national average of 34.8%. Prince Edward Island (+63.2%) posted the largest year-over-year increases while British Columbia (+29.1%) had the smallest change in the energy index.
Canadian customers paid 48.0% more for gasoline in May 2022 when compared to the previous year. Nova Scotians paid 53.0% more for gasoline in May from the previous year. Compared to April 2022, gasoline prices were up 12.0% in Canada and 15.7% in Nova Scotia this month.
Nova Scotia's consumer price inflation (year-over-year growth in CPI) excluding energy was 4.8% in May compared to a national rate of 5.8%. British Columbia (+6.9%) posted the largest year-over-year gain while Newfoundland and Labrador (+4.0%) had the smallest change in the CPI excluding energy.
Major Components for May 2022
The following table shows the price increases specific to Nova Scotia for the major components of the CPI this month.
The main contributors to the monthly change (May 2022 vs April 2022) in Nova Scotia CPI were:
- Gasoline (+15.7%)
- Fuel oil and other fuels (+20.9%)
- Rent (+2.0%)
- Furniture (-2.9%)
- Other food preparations (downward contribution, percent change not available)
- Personal care services (-2.7%)
The main contributors to the yearly change (May 2022 vs May 2021) in Nova Scotia CPI were:
- Gasoline (+53.0%)
- Fuel oil and other fuels (+98.3%)
- Rent (+7.5%)
- Mortgage interest cost (downward contribution, percent change not available)
- Video and audio subscription services (-8.9%)
- Travel tours (downward contribution, percent change not available)
Long Run Trends
In May 2022, the all-items CPI year-over-year inflation rate for Nova Scotia was 8.8%, above the national inflation rate of 7.7%. This was the highest inflation in Nova Scotia September 1982 (+9.1%), tied with October 1982 (+8.8%) and January 1991 (+8.8%).
Nova Scotia’s CPI excluding food and energy increased 5.2%. Canada CPI excluding food and energy rose 4.0%. The NS CPI excluding food and energy was previously above 4% in April 2003 (+4.1%).
Bank of Canada's preferred measures of core inflation
Compared to May 2021, CPI-Common increased 3.9%, CPI-Median increased 4.9% and CPI-Trim was up 5.4% in Canada. All-items CPI excluding eight of the most volatile components as defined by the Bank of Canada and excluding the effect of changes in indirect taxes (formerly referred to as CPIX), rose 6.1% year-over-year. The change in the core inflation measures was up 0.4 percentage points for CPI-common, up 0.3 percentage points for CPI-Trim and up 0.2 percentage points for CPI-median from the previous 12-month period.
Appendix Tables and Charts
Source: Statistics Canada. Table 18-10-0004-01 Consumer Price Index, monthly, not seasonally adjusted; Table 18-10-0256-01 Consumer Price Index (CPI) statistics, measures of core inflation and other related statistics - Bank of Canada definitions
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