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February 08, 2021DEATH COUNTS AND EXCESS MORTALITY, JANUARY-NOVEMBER 2020 The first death attributed to COVID-19 in Canada was reported in British Columbia occurring on March 8, 2020. COVID-19 has caused the death of more than 20,000 people in Canada.
Statistics Canada has provided provisional information on deaths in Canada during the first 49 weeks of 2020 (up to December 5). This includes deaths attributable to all causes; fluctuations from one week to the next may be attributable to many different causes of death. The data does not include all deaths that occurred during the reference period. Of note, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Manitoba and Saskatchewan information is not fully complete for the latest weeks.
A comparison of deaths in 2020 with the number of deaths reported in similar weeks in previous years allows highlights whether mortality is higher than usually observed at that time of year. The number of deaths reported in each week is represented below as a ratio of deaths per 1 million residents (population as of July 1 of the year).
There was a period of excess mortality in April and early May, concentrated in Quebec, Ontario, Alberta and British Columbia. There were also elevated deaths in Nova Scotia in the week ending April 25; Statistics Canada notes that deaths due to COVID-19 were reported in that week, but the total was affected by lives lost in the mass shooting on April 18-19. From May to July, the levels of deaths in all provinces fell. Starting in August and September, some excess mortality (above the upper bound of expected deaths) appeared across Canada, concentrated in British Columbia, Alberta, Ontario and Quebec.
In the most current data, deaths per million residents were above averages from recent years in British Columbia, Alberta, Ontario (to October 31), Quebec and New Brunswick (to October 3). Deaths per million residents were consistent with recent years in all other provinces.
Based on observed historical trends, Statistics Canada has also estimated the expected number of deaths for each week in 2020 and compared this with observed deaths (adjusted where possible reflecting provisional data). Estimates of expected deaths are presented with a 95 per cent confidence interval. Data for Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Ontario, Manitoba and Saskatchewan are not available in some of the most recent weeks.
In the spring, Quebec and Ontario experienced greater excess mortality than other provinces, well above the upper bound of confidence intervals for expected deaths in April and May. To a lesser extent, deaths were also elevated above expected values in Alberta and British Columbia. There were individual weeks with excess mortality at or above the upper bound of the confidence interval for expected deaths in Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Manitoba and Saskatchewan.
In the most recent data, deaths are consistent with the upper and lower bounds of a 95% confidence interval in Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, Quebec, Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Deaths (to October 3) were above the upper bound of expected deaths in New Brunswick. Deaths in Ontario (to October 31) were just above the upper bound of expected deaths. Excess mortality (above the upper bound) was apparent in both Alberta and British Columbia.
Source: Statistics Canada. Table 13-10-0768-01 Weekly death counts, by age group and sex; Table 13-10-0784-01 Adjusted number of deaths, expected number of deaths and estimates of excess mortality, by week
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