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February 19, 2020ANALYSIS OF NOVA SCOTIA'S CONSUMER PRICE INDEX FOR JANUARY 2020 TRENDS - January 2020
In Nova Scotia January 2020, year over year growth for the All-Items Consumer Price Index was 2.6 per cent, above the national average of 2.4 per cent. Monthly consumer prices were up 0.4 per cent in Nova Scotia and 0.3 per cent nationally.
New Brunswick, Saskatchewan and Alberta had the highest inflation in the month. Inflation was lowest in Ontario and Manitoba (+0.1 per cent).
The national CPI increase of 2.4 per cent on a year-over-year basis in January was 0.3 per cent above the previous month. Energy prices rose 6.8 per cent year-over-year following an increase in December with gasoline pries 11.2 per cent higher than January 2019. Year-over-year growth in fresh vegetable prices (+5.0%) rose at a faster pace in January with tomato prices up (+10.8%) and other fresh vegetables (+5.0%) compared with January 2019.
Year over year inflation was highest in Prince Edward Island and Alberta (+3.0%) while lowest was in Ontario (+2.1%).
Nova Scotia's consumer price inflation (year over year growth in CPI) excluding food and energy rose 2.1 per cent in January higher than the national rate of 1.9 per cent. Price level gains for this index were largest in Quebec (+2.5 per cent), and lowest in Newfoundland and Labrador (+1.2 per cent). On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's index excluding food and energy was up 0.2 per cent.
The main contributors to the monthly (January 2020 vs. December 2019) NS CPI movement:
- Men's clothing (+6.8 per cent)
- Fresh vegetables (+5.9 per cent)
- Inter-city transportation (-13.2 per cent)
- Furniture (-5.1 per cent)
The main contributors to the annual (January 2020 vs. January 2019) NS CPI movement
- Gasoline (+13.5 per cent)
- Passenger vehicle insurance premiums (+9.8 per cent)
- Home entertainment equipment, parts and services (-14.4)
- Telephone services (-7.4 per cent)
The CPI for food in Nova Scotia increased 2.8 per cent year-over-year with a 1.6 per cent increase month-to-month. CPI growth in food (year over year) was up in all provinces this month. Alberta showed the highest year over year food price growth (+4.6 per cent). Nationally, annual food prices increased 3.2 per cent.
The Nova Scotia energy price index increased by 6.8 per cent compared to a year ago. Monthly energy prices (January 2020 vs. December 2019) were up 0.5 per cent in Nova Scotia and were up 0.2 per cent nationally. Year-over-year energy price indexes increased in every province with the largest increase in Prince Edward Island (+10.7 per cent).
Year over year, the consumer price index for shelter increased by 3.4 per cent in Nova Scotia and 2.4 per cent in Canada. Shelter costs were up in every province.
Major Components for January 2020
The following table shows the price increases specific to Nova Scotia for the major components of the CPI this month:
Long Run Trends
The All-Items CPI year over year inflation rate for Nova Scotia was the higher than Canada's in January 2020. Nova Scotia's annual inflation has mostly been below the Canadian average since mid-2014, with the exception of only a few months. While month to month movements in the indices can be different, over time they generally follow the same overall trend.
Annual inflation for the CPI excluding food and energy in Nova Scotia (2.1 per cent) was higher than the national rate (1.9 per cent) in January 2020.
Bank of Canada's preferred measures of core inflation
Compared with January 2019, CPI-Common increased 1.8 per cent, CPI-Median rose 2.2 per cent and CPI-Trim was up 2.1 per cent in Canada. All-items CPI excluding eight of the most volatile components as defined by the Bank of Canada, and excluding the effect of changes in indirect taxes (formerly referred to as CPIX), rose 1.8 per cent year over year.
Appendix Tables and Charts
A NOTE ON CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
On February 27, 2019, with the release of the January 2019 CPI, the basket of goods and services used in the calculation of the CPI was updated using 2017 weights. The base year, in which the CPI is set to equal 100, remains 2002.
The 2017 basket classification system was updated to add new, relevant goods and services, while removing some that are obsolete. Some minor changes will be made to published index titles in order to clarify the definition of some series.
The alcoholic beverages and tobacco products major component has been updated to include recreational cannabis. Additionally, medicinal cannabis has been added under medicinal and pharmaceutical products.
There is also a change to the calculation of the rent index. Month over month changes to the rent index will not be impacted as the previous month has been linked to the current month. However, year over year change calculations should be interpreted with caution, particularly in the year following this implemented change.
Source: Statistics Canada data portal: Tables 18-10-0004-01 and 18-10-0256-01
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