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Thomas StorringDirector – Economics and Statistics
Tel: 902-424-2410Email: thomas.storring@novascotia.ca

January 30, 2020
BANK OF ENGLAND MONETARY POLICY

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to maintain the Bank Rate at 0.75 per cent. The MPC also voted to maintain the stock of UK non-financial corporate bonds stock at £10 billion and the stock of UK government bond purchases at £435 billion. 

The Bank's Monetary Policy Report notes that UK economic growth slowed in 2019. UK GDP is expected to be flat in Q4, 2019. Household consumption continues to grow, but business investment and export are areas of weakness. Unemployment has remained stable and the employment growth has picked up. Growth in regular pay slowed to around 3.5 percent. UK GDP is expected to pick up in early 2020, though this assumes a free trade agreement between the UK and European Union is struck at the beginning of the year. Global growth is showing signs of stabilising and financial conditions remain supportive. The partial de-escalation of the US-China trade dispute, reduced Brexit uncertainty and accommodative fiscal policy would be supportive to stronger growth although trade tensions remain elevated. 

Inflation in the UK declined at 1.3 per cent in December with core CPI inflation at 1.4 per cent. There has been a greater margin of excess capacity in the economy which is causing downward pressure on the inflation.  Inflation should fall in first half of 2020 from temporary effects of declines in regulated energy and water prices and after that upward pressure on prices is expected as UK economy will grow. 

The Bank notes that monetary policy could be eased or tightened depending on changes to the economic outlook.  If the economy recovers in line with the Bank's latest projections, a gradual and limited tightening of policy will be needed to sustain inflation at the target.

Bank of England: Monetary Policy Report



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