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March 08, 2019LABOUR MARKET TRENDS - FEBRUARY 2019 Nova Scotia's seasonally adjusted employment increased by 1,400 to 466,500 in February 2019. This marks the eighth consecutive month of employment growth and the highest level of employment in the 43-year history of the labour force survey.
Compared to January, Nova Scotia’s labour force decreased by 700 to 498,500 in February. Unemployment declined by 2,100, and with employment increasing, the net result was a 0.5 percentage point decrease in the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate to 6.4 per cent in February. This is the lowest unemployment rate for Nova Scotia in the current format of the labour force survey.
In February, the increase in employment was due to a gain in full-time employment (1,100) as well as in part-time employment (400). Full-time employment has once again reached an all time high at 382,700. Note: Changes in part-time and full-time employment can include the net impacts of changing hours of work within the same position.
Compared with February 2018, the labour force has increased by 3,900 while employment is up 10,800. The year-over-year increase in employment includes a rise of 7,200 in full time employment and an increase of 3,600 in part time employment. The unemployment rate was 1.5 percentage points lower in February 2019 than it was in February 2018.
Age Cohorts
In February 2019, the monthly unemployment rate for the 15-24 age cohort rose 0.8 percentage points to 14.2 per cent. The unemployment rate for the 25-54 year old age cohort declined 0.7 percentage points to 5.0 per cent, and for those aged 55 years and older, the unemployment rate decreased 0.5 percentage points to 5.1 per cent.
Year-to-Date
Comparing the first two months of 2019 to the same period in 2018, the youth cohort (aged 15-24) saw a decrease in population (-300) along with increases of 4,500 in labour force and 7,100 in employment. With the number of unemployed declining as a proportion of the labour force, the unemployment rate for 15-24-year olds decreased 4.7 percentage points to 13.8 per cent year-to-date 2019.
Within the 25-54 age cohort, the population in January-February 2019 was 1,300 higher than it was in the same period of 2018. With employment among core aged workers rose by 100 while the labour force dropped by 2,300. Unemployment in this age cohort dropped by 2,400, and as a result, the unemployment rate declined by 0.7 percentage points over last year to 5.4 per cent in year to date terms in February 2019.
In year to date terms, older workers (55+) reported a population increase of 6,200 in February 2019. The labour force for older workers was up 2,400 and employment increased by 4,000. Employment gains outpaced the rise in labour supply, reducing unemployment by 1,600 and decreasing the year to date unemployment rate from 6.9 per cent in Jan-Feb 2018 to 5.4 per cent in Jan-Feb 2019.
Sectors – Year to Date
Looking at the results by class of worker for the first two months of 2019, employment increases for the private sector (+7,000) and for the public sector (+5,200) offset self-employment declines (-1,000). In Nova Scotia, there was an average of 289,200 private sector employees, 116,600 public sector employees, and 60,100 self-employed for the first two months of 2019.
Among goods-producing sectors, the first two months of 2019 saw employment growth concentrated in agriculture (+1,400) and forestry, fishing, hunting, mining and oil and gas (+1,300) offsetting declines in utilities employment (-200). Both construction and manufacturing employment were unchanged. Services-producing employment increased by 8,700 compared to the first two months of 2018. The largest increases come from Trade, accommodation/food sectors, health care, and information, culture and recreation. The largest decline came from finance/insurance, other services, and public administration.
Regions – Year-to-Date (3-month moving average)
Comparing the first two months 2019 against the same period in 2018, unemployment rates fell in all economic regions except Cape Breton. The Southern and Halifax regions both saw employment gains, while all regions except Cape Breton had declines in total unemployment.
The Cape Breton region showed declines in both employment (-1,400) and labour force (-400), and an increase in unemployment (1,000). This put upward pressure on the unemployment rate, which rose from 14.7 per cent in January 2018 to 16.7 per cent in February 2019.
For the North Shore region, the labour force declined by 4,200 and employment declined by 2,100. With labour force falling and unemployment dropping by 2,100, this caused a 2.4 percentage point drop in the unemployment rate from 9.1 per cent to 6.7 per cent.
The Annapolis Valley reported a decline of 900 for employment along with a decline of 1,800 for the labour force. Unemployment dropped by 900, and the net result was drop in the average unemployment rate of 1.2 percentage points to 7.4 per cent.
The Southern region saw an increase of 5,500 in employment along with an increase of 5,000 in the labour force. With unemployment declining by 600 over this period, the unemployment rate was down 1.7 percentage points to 6.8 per cent so far in 2019.
Halifax experienced an increase in employment of 8,700 along with an increase in the labour force of 4,400. With unemployment declining by 4,300, there was a drop in the unemployment rate of 1.9 percentage points to 4.6 per cent in Halifax.
Provincial Comparisons
The Nova Scotia unemployment rate was 6.4 per cent in February 2019, down from 7.9 per cent a year ago. The Canadian unemployment rate was 5.8 per cent, level with one year ago. Canada's unemployment rate remains near record lows since the start of the Labour Force Survey.
Compared to the same month one year ago, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, Quebec, Manitoba and BC showed declines in the monthly unemployment rate. The lowest unemployment rate among the provinces this month was in British Columbia (4.5 per cent) while the highest was in Newfoundland and Labrador at 11.8 per cent.
Employment across the country was up in all provinces in year to date terms, with the exception of PEI, which showed a slight decline of 0.1 per cent for the first two months of 2019 compared to the same period in 2018. The largest gains in percentage terms was seen in Newfoundland and Labrador (3.4%) and in British Columbia (2.5%). Nationally, employment was up 1.9 per cent.
National Comparisons: Cities (Monthly)
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for the Halifax Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) in January 2019 was 4.9 per cent (3 month moving average). Guelph, Ontario (1.7 per cent) had the lowest unemployment rate among CMAs, while the highest was in Calgary (7.6 per cent).
The seasonally adjusted employment rate for the Halifax CMA was 64.2 per cent, down slightly from last month. Saguenay had the lowest employment rate (53.5 per cent), while Guelph had the highest (69.0 per cent).
Halifax’s employment (3 month moving average) for February 2019 was level compared to the January 2019 result. The largest gain among CMAs was in Brantford, Ontario, where employment rose by 2.6 per cent.
Note: Seasonally adjusted, 3 month average.
With the January 2019 Labour Force Survey release, Statistics Canada has changed the processing systems that is used to impute data of incomplete records of the survey. Statistics Canada notes that for most LFS estimates the difference from the new system will be small, but some areas could be impacted such as part-time employment and employment by firm size. The transition is being monitored and historical revisions of series maybe made in the future. For more details, see Transition of Labour Force Survey Data Processing to the Social Survey Processing Environment (SSPE)
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