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February 28, 2019US GDP 2018 Q4 (INITIAL ESTIMATE) 
The US economy grew at 2.6 per cent (seasonally adjusted annualized rate, chained 2012 dollars) in Q4 2018, according to the initial estimate by the US BEA. Growth in the third quarter was 3.4 per cent. Since Q4 2017, the US real GDP has grown by 3.1 per cent.
Growth in Q4 2018 reflected positive contributions from personal consumption, non-residential fixed investment, exports, private inventory investment and federal government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from residential investment, state and local government spending and a rise in imports.
The deceleration this quarter was due slower growth in inventory investment, personal consumption, and federal government spending, and a downturn in state and local government spending. This was partially offset by an increase in exports and non-residential investment. Imports increased less in the fourth quarter compared to the previous quarter.
Personal consumption continued to expand with growth of 2.8 per cent in Q4 with goods consumption rising 3.8 per cent and services up 2.4 per cent. Residential investment contracted for the fourth consecutive quarter with a decline of 3.5 per cent. Non-residential investment was up 6.2 per cent with growth in equipment and intellectual property products offsetting a decline in structures (-4.2 per cent). Private inventory investment increased for the quarter. Real exports rose 1.6 per cent in Q4 after declining in the previous quarter. Imports were up 2.7 per cent on increases in both goods and services imports.
US nominal GDP growth (including the impacts of rising prices) was 4.6 per cent in Q4, compared to 4.9 per cent growth reported in the third quarter. The personal consumption expenditure price index increased 1.5 per cent, following a 1.6 per cent increase last quarter.
In 2018, the US economy expanded by 2.9 per cent, the fastest pace of growth since 2015. Positive contributions came from personal consumption, non-residential fixed investment, exports, government spending, private inventory investment, partially offset by lower residential investment and rising imports. The acceleration in the 2018 growth rate compared to 2017 was due to accelerations in non-residential investment, private inventory investment, federal government spending, exports and personal consumption, and an upturn in state and local spending, partially offset by a downturn in residential investment.
Note: Due to the recent partial government shutdown, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has released this "Initial Estimate" in place of the "advance" and "second" estimates.
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
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