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July 06, 2018LABOUR MARKET TRENDS - JUNE 2018 Nova Scotia's seasonally adjusted employment decreased by 1,700 to 452,400 in June 2018. This decrease follows a decrease of 3,600 in May. The last time there were back-to-back declines in the seasonally adjusted employment was in the spring of 2017. The employment level has remained over 450,000 since December 2017.
Compared to May, Nova Scotia’s labour force increased by 1,600 to 491,100 in June. The combination of a rising labour supply along with a decrease in labour demand pushed the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate up by 0.7 percentage points to 7.9 per cent in June. Nova Scotia’s unemployment rate remains below long run averages.
In June, the decrease in employment was distributed across both full-time employment (-1,500) and part-time employment (- 300). Although full time employment declined last month, it remains near record levels. Changes in part-time and full-time employment can include the net impacts of changing hours of work within the same position.
Year-to Date (January-June 2018 vs. January-June 2017)
Comparing the first half of 2018 to the same period in 2017, there was an increase of 5,800 (1.3 per cent) in the average employment level. Full time employment was up 9,900 (2.7 per cent) while there were 4,200 fewer part-time jobs (-4.9 per cent).
The labour force was up 2,300 (0.5 per cent) compared to the first half of 2017. With labour demand increasing at a faster pace, the net result was a drop in the average unemployment rate of 0.7 percentage point to 7.6 per cent. The labour force participation rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 61.7 per cent. The employment rate increased to 57.1 per cent.
Age Cohorts
Comparing the first half of 2018 to the same period in 2017, the youth population (aged 15-24) saw a decrease in population (-700) and a drop in employment (500) while the labour force increased by 200. With labour supply increasing and labour demand falling, the unemployment rate for 15-24 year of age increased from 16.0 per cent in the first half of 2017 to 16.9 per cent in the first half of 2018. For June, the youth unemployment rate was 16.9 per cent.
Within the 25-54 age cohort, the population declined 800 over the first half of the year, but saw an employment increase of 4,700 and labour supply increase of 1,300. With employment increasing faster than the labour supply, there was a 1.1 per cent decline in the unemployment rate for this cohort, dropping to 5.9 per cent for the first half of 2018. The June unemployment rate for these core aged workers was 6.2 per cent
The cohort aged 55 and older saw a population increase of 7,200 over the first half of last year, a labour force increase of 800 and employment gains of 1,500. With labour demand growing faster than the labour supply, there was a decrease in the unemployment rate to 6.5 per cent (compared to 7.1 per cent over the first half of 2017). The June unemployment rate for the age group 55 and older was 7.0 per cent.
Sectors
Looking at public and private sector employees for the first half of 2018, the employment increase in private sector employees (6,900) was the driving force offsetting decreases in public sector employees (-3,400). For the same period self-employment was up 2,300.
Among goods-producing sectors, the first half of 2018 saw employment growth concentrated in manufacturing (+1,700) and construction (+1,200) offsetting declines in forestry, fishing, hunting, mining and oil and gas (-1,200). Services-producing employment increased by 3,300 for the first half of 2018 over the same period in 2017. The largest increases come from education, accommodation/food sectors and wholesale/retail trade. The largest decline came from health care and social assistance.
Regions (3 month moving average, January-June 2018 vs. January-June 2017)
Comparing the 3-month average for the first half of 2018 with the same period in 2017, Halifax was the only region reporting a falling unemployment rate due to employment growth outpacing labour supply. The Southern region had lower unemployment rates due to labour supply falling while employment edged up. The North Shore region had falling employment and labour supply causing upward pressure on their unemployment rates. The Annapolis Valley’s employment growth was slightly slower than the rise in labour supply resulting in a higher unemployment rate. The Cape Breton region reported no change in their unemployment rate with equal declines in both labour demand and labour supply.
The Cape Breton region reported a decline in employment of 700 while there were 800 less in the labour force. The net result was no change in the unemployment rate at 14.7 per cent.
For the North Shore region, employment decreased 2,300 while the labour force also declined 2,300. Matching declines produced a 0.2 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate to 9.5 per cent.
The Annapolis Valley reported an increase in employment of 1,400 and an increase in the labour force of 1,600. The net result was an increase of 0.1 percentage points in the average unemployment rate to 8.5 per cent.
The Southern region saw an increase of 300 in employment along with a drop of 1,300 in the labour force. With the labour force falling and employment slightly higher, the unemployment rate was down 2.8 percentage points to 7.7 per cent.
Halifax experienced an increase in employment of 7,400 along with an increase in the labour force of 6,500. With the labour demand growing faster than labour supply the unemployment rate dropped by 0.5 percentage point to 6.3 per cent in Halifax.
Provincial Comparisons
The Nova Scotia unemployment rate was 7.9 per cent in June 2018. In June of last year, the unemployment rate was 8.9 per cent in Nova Scotia. The Canadian unemployment rate was 6.0 per cent, down from 6.5 per cent one year ago. Compared to the same month one year ago, only Newfoundland and Labrador, Manitoba and British Columbia reported a higher unemployment rate. Prince Edwards Island had the steepest decline (-1.4 percentage points). The lowest unemployment rate among the provinces in June 2018 was in British Columbia (5.2 per cent) while the highest was in Newfoundland and Labrador at 15.5 per cent.
Comparing January-June 2018 with January-June 2017, employment increased 1.5 per cent in Canada. Employment grew in eight of the ten provinces, with the largest gains in Prince Edward Island (+2.4 per cent). Employment declined in Newfoundland and Labrador (-0.8 per cent) and Saskatchewan (-0.3 per cent).
National Comparisons: Cities
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for the Halifax Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) in April was 6.0 per cent. Peterborough (2.7 per cent) had the lowest unemployment rate among CMAs in June, while the highest was in St. John's (8.6 per cent).
The seasonally adjusted employment rate for the Halifax CMA was 64.1 per cent, down from 64.3 last month. Saguenay had the lowest employment rate (55.1 per cent), while Regina had the highest (67.8 per cent).
The three month average employment ending in June for the Halifax CMA was down 0.1 per cent compared to the three month period ending in May. The largest gain among CMAs was in Saint John, NB where employment rose by 2.0 per cent.
Note: Seasonally adjusted, 3 month average.
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