August 04, 2017LABOUR MARKET TRENDS - JULY 2017 Nova Scotia's seasonally adjusted employment increased by 1,900 to 450,200 in July 2017. This gain reverses the 1,900 decline in June bringing employment back to the same level as was observed in May.
Compared to June, Nova Scotia’s labour force decreased by 3,100 to 488,700 in July . With labour supply falling and employment growing, the net result was a 0.9 percentage point decrease in the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate to 7.9 per cent in July, also the same as was observed in May. With labour supply dropping with only a slight growth in the working age population (+400). the participation rate decreased 0.4 percentage points to 61.7 per cent for the month. With an increase in the employment level (1,900), the employment rate increased to 56.8 per cent.
In July, the increase in employment was in part-time (2,700) jobs while full-time was down (-900).
During the first seven months of 2017 compared to the first seven months of 2016, there was an increase of 3,800 (0.8 per cent) in the average employment level. Average full time employment was down 800 while there were 4,700 more part-time jobs. The labour force was up 2,400 for the first seven months of 2017. With labour demand increasing at a faster pace than the labour supply, the net result was a decline in the average unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points to 8.2 per cent. The labour force participation rate remained the same at 61.9 per cent. The employment rate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 56.8 per cent.
AGE COHORTS (January-July 2017 vs. January-July 2016)
The labour force survey population estimate of the 15-24-year age group declined by 1,400 comparing the first seven months of 2017 to the first seven months of 2016. The age group saw a decline of 2,200 in the labour force and 2,400 in employment during this period as the number of unemployed increased by 200. The unemployment rate increased to 15.8 per cent for the first seven months of 2017, compared with 15.1 per cent during the same period in 2016. The larger decline in employment compared to the decline in population led to a 1.5 percentage point decline in the youth employment rate to 53.6 per cent.
For Nova Scotians aged 25 to 54, the labour force increased by 800 and employment increased 2,400 (comparing the first seven months of 2017 with the same period in 2016). With growth in labour demand outpacing the growth in labour supply, the net result was a 0.5 percentage points decline in the unemployment rate for core aged workers to 6.9 per cent. With a rising labour force and a falling population (-3,400), the labour force participation rate for Nova Scotians aged 25 to 54 increased 1.0 percentage points to 86.2 per cent. The employment rate rose 1.4 percentage points to 80.3 per cent.
For those Nova Scotians aged 55 and over, the population, labour force and employment have all increased comparing the first seven months of 2017 to the first seven months of 2016. Both the employment and labour force increased by 3,800. There was no change in the, unemployment level. As employment growth rates were slightly faster than labour force growth rates, the unemployment rate for older workers declined 0.2 percentage points to 7.1 per cent. The participation rate and employment rate both increased for this age group, rising to 34.8 per cent and 32.3 per cent respectively. Over half of the year-to-date gains in part time work are in the 55 and over age cohort. This cohort has seen a recent upswing in part time employment, while full time employment has been stable or dropping slightly in recent month.
SECTORS (January-July 2017 vs. January-July 2016)
Comparing the first seven months of 2017 to the first seven months of 2016, employment in goods-producing sectors increased by 200 jobs. Employment gains in agriculture, utilities and manufacturing were enough to offset a loss in construction, and forestry/fishing/mining/gas.
There was a net gain of 3,600 jobs in service-producing sectors. Strong employment gains in wholesale/retail trade, professional services, and public administration were enough to override the job losses in financial services, educational services, accommodation/food services, health care, information and cultural industries, and transportation and warehousing.
The increase in employment for the first seven months of 2017 over the same period in 2016 occurred with employees increasing by 3,200 while the number of self-employed increasing by 600. The gain in employees occurred with a gain of 3,200 jobs in public sector and almost no change in the private sector.
Regions (3 month moving average, January-July 2017 vs. January-July 2016)
For the first seven months of 2017 compared to the first seven months of 2016, most regions reported employment growth that outpaced labour force growth, resulting in lower average unemployment rates. The exception was in the Halifax economic region, where falling employment combined with a slight increase in labour supply to cause the unemployment rate to rise.
The Cape Breton region reported an increase in employment of 500 (1.0 per cent) for the first seven months of 2017 over the first seven months of 2016. The labour force decreased by 700 (-1.3 per cent) for the same period. With labour demand increasing while labour supply fell, the result was a 2.1 percentage point decrease in the unemployment rate to 14.4 per cent.
For the North Shore region, employment increased 1,600 (2.4 per cent) for the first seven months of 2017 over the same period in 2016. Labour supply increased by 1,300 (1.7 per cent) for the same period. The increase in labour demand resulted in a 0.7 percentage point decline in the unemployment rate to 9.2 per cent.
The Annapolis Valley reported an increase in employment of 1,600 (2.9 per cent) and an increase in the labour force of 1,100 for the first seven months of 2017 over the same period in 2016. The net result was decrease of 0.8 percentage points in the average unemployment rate to 8.1 per cent.
The Southern region saw a slight increase of 100 (0.1 per cent) in employment along with a small drop of 300 in the labour force for the first seven months of 2017 over the first seven months of 2016. The unemployment rate was down 0.5 percentage points to 10.3 per cent.
Comparing the first seven months of 2017 to the first seven months of 2016, Halifax (HRM) experienced a small decrease in employment of 600 (-0.3 per cent) along with a negligible increase of 100 (0.0 per cent) in the labour supply. These adjustments resulted in 0.3 percentage point rise in the unemployment rate to 6.8 per cent.
Provincial Comparisons
Employment increased 1.7 per cent in Canada comparing January-July 2017 with January-July 2016. Employment grew on a year-to-date basis in nine provinces with the largest gains in British Columbia (+3.7%), Prince Edward Island (+3.0%), and Quebec (+2.4%). Employment in Newfoundland and Labrador (-3.7%) declined over the first seven months of 2017 compared to 2016.
The Nova Scotia unemployment rate was 7.9 per cent in July 2017. In July of last year, the Nova Scotia unemployment rate was 8.3 per cent. Seven provinces have lower unemployment rates compared to the same month a year ago, with New Brunswick (-3.1 percentage points) having the steepest decline. The unemployment rate was higher in Newfoundland and Labrador (+2.8 percentage points), Prince Edward Island (+0.3 percentage points) and Saskatchewan(+0.3 percentage points) compared to July 2016. The lowest unemployment rate among the provinces in July 2017 was in Manitoba at 5.0 per cent while the highest was in Newfoundland and Labrador at 15.7 per cent.
National Comparisons: Cities
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for the Halifax Census Metropolitan Area this month was 6.8 per cent. Kelowna (3.6%) had the lowest unemployment rate for a CMA this month while the highest was in Peterborough (9.6%)
The seasonally adjusted employment rate for the Halifax Census Metropolitan Area was lower than last month at 62.8 per cent in July 2017.
The three month average employment ending in July for the Halifax CMA was unchanged compared to the three month period ending in June. The largest gain among CMAs was in St. Catharines-Niagara, Ontario where employment rose 1.2 per cent.
Note: Seasonally adjusted, 3 month average.