March 11, 2016LABOUR MARKET TRENDS - FEBRUARY 2016 TRENDS
Nova Scotia's seasonally adjusted employment increased by 800 to 444,300 in February 2016. This follows three months of consecutive declines. Before November there was an up and down pattern in Nova Scotia’s employment through the spring and summer of 2015.
Compared to January, the labour force has increased by 4,000 to 488,800 in February. With labour supply increasing a faster pace than labour demand, the net result was a 0.6 percentage point increase in the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate to 9.1 percent in February. Because of the increase in labour supply, the participation rate increased by 0.5 percentage points to 62.1 per cent. Due to an increase in employment there was slight increase in the employment rate (0.1 percentage point) to 56.4 per cent.
In February, the increase in employment reflected a combination of 1,400 new part-time jobs and 700 less full-time jobs. Note that changes in hours can include the switching back and forth in full and part time employment.
Compared with February 2015, the labour force has decreased by 2,600 (-0.5 percent) while employment decreased 2,700(-0.6 per cent). Full-time employment levels in February are down 2,300 from a year ago, and part-time is down a further 500 from the same month in 2015. Overall, with labour demand decreasing at a slightly faster pace than labour supply, the end result was a 0.1 percentage point increase in seasonally adjusted unemployment rate to 9.1 per cent.
Year-to-Date: Jan-Feb 2016 over Jan-Feb 2015
For the first two months of 2016 compared to the first two months of 2015, there was a decrease of 4,900 (-1.1 per cent) in the average employment level. Average full time employment was down 2,800 while there were 2,100 fewer part time workers. The labour force was down 4,700 (-1.0 per cent) for the first two months of 2016. With labour demand falling slightly faster than the labour supply, the net result was an increase in the average unemployment rate by 0.1 percentage points to 8.8 per cent. The labour force participation rate dropped 0.8 percentage points to 61.9 per cent. The employment rate fell by 0.9 percentage points to 56.4 per cent.
SECTORS (YTD)
Comparing the first two months of 2016 to the first two months of 2015, employment in goods-producing sectors increased by 1,600 jobs. This increase was due to the 2,600 new jobs in the manufacturing sector. There was a net loss in employment of 6,400 in service-producing sectors. Employment gains in health, education, and financial services were not enough to override the job losses in wholesale/retail trade, business/support services (includes call centres), information/culture and accommodation/food.
REGIONS (YTD 3 month moving average, unadjusted)
The North Shore and Valley regions reported increases in employment among the province's five economic regions comparing the first two months of 2016 over the first two months of 2015. All other regions reported declines in both their labour demand and supply for the first two months of 2016 over the same period in 2014. The net result was only the North Shore with a decrease in their unemployment rate. The Valley region had no change in their unemployment rate.
The Cape Breton region reported a decrease in employment of 6,400 for the first two months of 2016 over the first two months of 2015. The labour force dropped by 5,600 for the same period. With employment decreasing at a faster pace, the end result was a 3.2 percentage increase in the unemployment rate 18.1 per cent.
For the North Shore region, employment increased 6,300 for the first two months of 2016 over the first two months of 2015. Labour supply increased by 4,400 for the same period. The larger increase in labour demand caused a 3.1 percentage point decline in the unemployment rate to 9.1 per cent.
The Annapolis region experienced an increase of 1,300 in employment while the labour force had an increase of 1,400 for the first two months of 2016 over the same period in 2015. With matching growth in labour demand and supply there was no change in the average unemployment rate at 8.1 per cent.
The Southern region saw employment fall by 2,500 and the labour force had a drop of 2,300 for the first two months of 2016 over the first two months of 2015. With the labour demand falling at a faster pace, the end result was an increase in the unemployment rate of 1.0 percentage points to 11.4 per cent.
For the first two months of 2016 compared to the first two months of 2015, Halifax (HRM) experienced a decline in employment (3,600) along with a drop of 2,600 in the labour supply. With a larger decline in labour market demand, the net impact was 0.5 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate to 6.8 per cent.
PROVINCIAL COMPARISONS
Employment growth increased 0.7 per cent in Canada comparing February 2016 with a year earlier. The fastest growth was in British Columbia (+2.6%) with employment continuing an upward trend. Ontario (+1.3%) and Quebec (+0.6%) increased, while all other provinces had no growth or declines compared to a year earlier. The largest declines occured in PEI (-2.6%) and Newfoundland and Labrador (-2.4%).
Nova Scotia unemployment rate was up 0.1 percentage points to 9.1 per cent in February 2016. In February 2015, Nova Scotia unemployment rate was 9.0 per cent. Two provinces: New Brunswick and Ontario have lower unemployment rates in February 2016 compared to a year earlier. The largest increase in the unemployment rate over the past year was in Newfoundland (+1.4 percentage points), Alberta (+2.5 percentage points)
National Comparisons: Cities
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for the Halifax Census Metropolitan Area was 6.8 per cent. Guelph (3.9%) had the lowest unemployment rate in Canada this month.
The seasonally adjusted employment rate for the Halifax Census Metropolitan Area decreased to 63.5 per cent in February 2016.
Employment in the Halifax CMA declined 0.2 per cent in February 2016 compared to last month. The largest gain from month to month in CMAs was in Barrie, Ontario, where employment rose by 1.6 per cent over the previous month.
Note: Seasonally adjusted, 3 month average.