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March 27, 2024NOVA SCOTIA QUARTERLY POPULATION ESTIMATES AS OF JANUARY 1, 2024 
Nova Scotia's population was 1,069,364 as of January 1, 2024. Nova Scotia's population increased by 2,948 (+0.28%) from October 1, 2023.
From October 1 to December 31, there were positive contributions to population growth from international sources as immigration (+2,788) was substantially higher than net emigration (-144) and the number of non-permanent residents entering Nova Scotia (+4,922) exceeded the number leaving the province (-4,498). Natural change continues to put downward pressure on Nova Scotia's population as deaths (-2,978) outpace births (+2,000). The number people moving to Nova Scotia from another province or territory (+3,022) exceeded the number of Nova Scotians leaving for another province or territory (-2,164), following the first quarterly net outflow since 2015 in the previous quarter.
Nova Scotia's population growth from October 1 to December 31 was slower than in the same period in the previous two years, but remains elevated from growth observed prior to 2020 (2020 was distorted by pandemic-related restrictions on relocation). Population growth typically slows in the final quarter of the year.
From October 1 to December 31, 2023 Nova Scotia’s population increased 0.28%, while the national population grew 0.60%. All provinces reported increasing populations. Alberta and Ontario reported the fastest population growth this quarter while Newfoundland and Labrador had the slowest growth.
Year-over-year change
Compared with January 1, 2023, Nova Scotia's population increased by 29,169 (+2.80%). This was the sixth fastest year-over-year growth for Nova Scotia's population for any 12-month period of the quarterly data that started in 1951, and also marks the third consecutive period that population growth has slowed from the peak in April 2023. Since ending a period of population decline on July 1, 2015 Nova Scotia's population has increased by 133,984.
Contributing to population growth from January 1, 2023 to December 31, 2023 were births (+8,376), immigrants (+11,807), non-permanent resident inflows (+27,977), interprovincial in-migration (+22,976). These gains were partially offset by deaths (-10,973), net emigration (-491), departure of non-permanent residents (-13,696) and out-migrants to other provinces or territories (-16,807).
Over the previous 12 months, the national population grew by 3.22%. Nova Scotia's year-over-year population growth (+2.80%) was slower than the national pace. Over the last year, Alberta (+4.40%) and Prince Edward Island (+3.66%) reported the fastest population gains while Newfoundland and Labrador reported the slowest growth rate (+1.04%).
Nova Scotia's year-over-year population growth of 2.80% (+29,169) has decelerated from the recent peak recorded as of April 1, 2023 but remains among the fastest year-over-year growth rates since 1951.
Immigration from other countries has been a strong contributor to population growth in Nova Scotia in recent years. For the period October 1 to December 31, an additional 2,788 immigrants came to the province. This higher than in the same period last year. Over the past year (January 1, 2023 - December 31, 2023) 11,807 immigrants have arrived in Nova Scotia.
The net change in non-permanent residents in the province was a net of 424 from October 1 to December 31 coming from a 4,922 inflow and an outflow of 4,498 non-permanent residents. This reflects a significant deceleration in the inflow of non-permanent residents from the previous quarter. In the period January 1 to December 31, there were a net 14,281 non-permanent residents coming to the province.
The number of non-permanent residents arriving in Nova Scotia in the last four quarters was 27,977.
In the last four quarters, 13,696 non-permanent residents left Nova Scotia.
Nova Scotia’s natural population change (the number of births less the number of deaths) has been negative for several years. Between October 1 and December 31 there were 2,000 births and 2,978 deaths, amounting to a natural population decline of 978. Quarterly population decline in the final quarter of 2023 was similar to that observed in 2022.
Since January 1, 2023, births of 8,376 were outnumbered by deaths of 10,973, resulting in a 2,597 natural population decline.
A total of 3,022 new Nova Scotians arrived in the province from other parts of Canada between October 1 and December 31. Although this was similar to pre-pandemic population inflows from other provinces, it was less than during the same months of 2021 and 2022. Since January 1, 2023 there have been 22,967 interprovincial migrants to Nova Scotia.
A total of 2,164 Nova Scotians left the province bound for other parts of Canada between October 1 and December 31. This was slightly slower than the pace observed in the same months of 2021 and 2022, but higher than in the same months in prior years. Over the past year, Nova Scotia has seen 16,807 interprovincial outmigrants.
From October 1 to December 31, Nova Scotia's net interprovincial migration returned to a net inflow (+858) following its first net interprovincial population loss in the previous quarter since 2015. Since January 1, 2023, Nova Scotia's net interprovincial migration was positive (+6,169).
Ontario continues to account for the largest number of in-migrants to Nova Scotia, however this pace is slowing. Migration from Ontario to Nova Scotia decreased from 2,115 between October 1, 2022 and December 31, 2022 to 1,477 from October 1, 2023 to December 31, 2023. In-migrants were up (compared to the same period in 2022) from the other Atlantic provinces, as well as Quebec, Manitoba, Northwest Territories and Nunavut.
Ontario and Alberta were the largest destinations for those leaving Nova Scotia between October 1 and December 31 of 2023. Out-migration to other provinces was down (comparing October 1-December 31 2023 with the same period in 2022) for all provinces and territories except Manitoba, Alberta, and Yukon.
In the last quarter, Nova Scotia's net interprovincial migration was positive - reflecting a large net inflow from Ontario (+768) as well as smaller net inflows from most provinces and territories. Only Alberta and Newfoundland and Labrador posted net outflows in the final quarter of 2023.
For January 1 to December 31, 2023, the largest source of interprovincial in-migration was from Ontario (11,629), lower than in the previous year. In-migration was lower from all provinces compared to the previous year except for Prince Edward Island, Quebec, Manitoba and the territories.
From January 1 to December 31, 2023 the primary destinations for outmigration from Nova Scotia were Ontario and Alberta, followed by New Brunswick and British Columbia. Compared to the previous year, out-migration was higher to Quebec, Alberta, British Columbia, Northwest Territories and Nunavut.
Ontario and British Columbia were the largest sources of positive net interprovincial migration for January 1 to December 31 2023. Over the past year, Nova Scotia reported net positive migration with all provinces and territories except Newfoundland and Labrador, New Brunswick, Alberta, Northwest Territories and Nunavut.
Non-permanent residents
Statistics Canada has released additional information on the stock and flow of non-permanent residents in the provinces. The number of non-permanent residents in Nova Scotia has increased from 37,584 as of January 1, 2023 to 51,865 as of January 1, 2024. Non-permanent residents most often hold work permits (24,107), study permits (15,159), or both work and study permits (9,860). Asylum claimants, both with and without study/work permits, were 383 as of January 1, 2024. There were 2,356 other non-permanent residents which are generally family members living with permit holders or persons with temporary residents permits.
Non-permanent residents accounted for 4.9% of Nova Scotia's population as of January 1, 2024. Nationally, non-permanent residents make up 6.5% of the population with the highest share in British Columbia (8.5%) and Ontario (7.6%) and lowest share in Newfoundland and Labrador (2.7%) and Saskatchewan (3.1%).
For the period October 1, 2023 to December 31, 2023, non-permanent resident population in Nova Scotia grew 0.8%, substantially slower from the previous period (+12.3% in the third quarter). Nationally, the non-permanent resident population was up 6.0% with the fastest growth in Alberta. Prince Edward Island reported the only decline during the fourth quarter.
The non-permanent resident population in Nova Scotia has increased 38.0% since January 1, 2023. Nationally, the non-permanent resident population increased 43.3% with the fastest growth in Alberta and the slowest in Prince Edward Island.
Source: Statistics Canada. Table 17-10-0009-01 Population estimates, quarterly; Table 17-10-0020-01 Estimates of the components of interprovincial migration, quarterly; Table 17-10-0040-01 Estimates of the components of international migration, quarterly; Table 17-10-0045-01 Estimates of interprovincial migrants by province or territory of origin and destination, quarterly; Table 17-10-0059-01 Estimates of the components of natural increase, quarterly; Table 17-10-0121-01 Estimates of the number of non-permanent residents by type, quarterly
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